Two recently completed surveys indicate a sunny outlook among businesses for the economy.
The Wisconsin Bankers Association’s latest biannual Economic Conditions Survey of Wisconsin bank CEOs indicates increasing numbers of bank CEOs expecting loan growth in the coming six months.
Key findings include:
- 83% of respondents rated Wisconsin’s current economic health as “excellent” or “good”;
- 29% of respondents expect the economy to grow over the next six months compared to only 8% the last time the survey was conducted in mid-year 2024; and
- 58% expect the economy to stay about the same over the next six months compared to 70% in the prior survey.
Among the economic bright spots cited by bank CEOs in the recent survey were stable employment and consumer spending along with industry strength in sectors such as manufacturing, tourism, technology, and residential construction. Looking ahead to the first half of 2025, however, bank CEOs reported continued concerns over inflation, interest rates, a high cost of living, and staffing challenges. Survey respondents also noted that the impacts of the recent November 2024 election remain to be seen.
Key findings include:
- The net percent of owners expecting the economy to improve rose 41 points from October to a net 36%, the highest since June 2020. This component had the greatest impact on the overall increase in the Optimism Index.
- The net percent of small business owners believing it is a good time to expand their business rose eight points to a net 14%. This is the highest reading since June 2021.
- The net percent of owners expecting higher real sales volumes rose 18 points to a net 14% (seasonally adjusted), the highest reading since February 2020.
- A net 5% of owners reported paying a higher rate on their most recent loan, unchanged from October’s lowest reading since January 2022.
- Twenty-eight percent (seasonally adjusted) plan capital outlays in the next six months, up six points from October. This is the highest reading since January 2022.
- The frequency of reports of positive profit trends was a net negative 26% (seasonally adjusted), up seven points from October and the highest reading of this year.
- Twenty percent of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business (higher input and labor costs), down three points from October and surpassing labor quality as the top issue by one point.
- Thirty-six percent (seasonally adjusted) of all owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, up one point from October.
