Wisconsin has experienced a 20 percent decline in agricultural exports to China in 2025, according to a report from Farm Flavor.
The report uses data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service, analyzing U.S. agricultural exports to China from January through August 2025, compared to the same period in 2024.
As the largest buyer of American agricultural goods outside of Mexico and Canada, China’s demand for soybeans, grains and meat drives prices across agriculture. That had led to volatility at times. During the trade war that began in 2018, retaliatory tariffs caused more than $27 billion in U.S. agricultural export losses, according to the U.S Department of Agriculture.
In 2025, that volatility returned. While recent diplomatic efforts have improved trade restrictions, China continues to diversify its supply chains toward competitors in Latin America, leaving American producers to navigate a landscape of uncertainty. President Donald Trump announced this week his administration plans to provide $12 billion in aid to U.S. farmers to offset some of the industry losses.
Over the past decade, the flow of American agricultural goods to China has shifted from reliable seasonality to stark volatility. From 2014 to 2017, exports followed a predictable rhythm throughout the year, peaking each fall with the soybean harvest. That pattern broke with the onset of the 2018 trade war, then rebounded sharply in 2020 and 2021 after the Phase One trade agreement.
But the landscape began to shift in 2023. Brazil delivered record soybean and corn harvests, undercutting U.S. prices on the global market. At the same time, China accelerated efforts to “de-risk” its food supply, deliberately increasing reliance on South American producers.
After steady declines in 2024, U.S. agricultural exports to China fell by more than half in the first eight months of 2025. The low point came in May, when monthly exports dropped to just $247 million – the lowest level in over a decade.
An analysis of the top 10 agricultural products by 2024 export value reveals widespread declines across the board in 2025. From January through August, soybean exports fell by $2.7 billion compared to the same period in 2024 – a 53% decline that alone accounted for over one-third of the total drop in trade value. Cotton exports plummeted by nearly 89%, a loss of $1.2 billion, marking the second-largest absolute decline among major products.
Grains also saw substantial disruptions. Exports of coarse grains like sorghum, millet, barley and oats (excluding corn) collapsed by 97%, while corn shipments fell by 99%, representing a combined $1.3 billion decline. Wheat exports dropped to zero during this period, down from $440 million the year prior. These figures underscore a broader breakdown in grain trade, reflecting both Chinese diversification strategies and weakened feed demand.
Here is a summary of the data for Wisconsin:
- Total change in agricultural exports to China: -$33,304,000
- Percentage change in agricultural exports to China: -20.5%
- Total agricultural exports Jan–Aug 2025: $129,277,000
- Total agricultural exports Jan–Aug 2024: $162,581,000
- Product most negatively impacted: Dairy Products (-16%)
For reference, here are the statistics for the entire United States:
- Total change in agricultural exports to China: -$7,399,381,000
- Percentage change in agricultural exports to China: -54.2%
- Total agricultural exports Jan–Aug 2025: $6,252,779,000
- Total agricultural exports Jan–Aug 2024: $13,652,160,000
- Product most negatively impacted: Soybeans (-53%)
